Economic Census shake a lot of economic research thesis

 Economic Research Economic Census shaken yesterday with a number of conclusions
engaged in economic research chat with friends, talk about a few days before the release of national economic census, he exclaimed: Oh I did not expect so much worse, a lot of economic relations in the have to reconsider, so let us out of the embarrassment!
calculated using the census data, 2004 Letters of GDP,UGG boots clearance, more than a year over year 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8%. more out of this 2.3 trillion, 93% of the tertiary industry change is a direct proportion of China's industrial structure changes three times. The first industry accounts for 15.2% of GDP, was changed by the 13.1%,Bailey UGG boots, lower by 2.1 percentage points; the secondary industry accounted for 52.9% of GDP,UGG boots, fell to 46.2% by the , 6.7 percentage points lower; tertiary industry GDP, from 31.9% to 40.7%, 8.8 percentage points.
the public or the media, which appeared more concerned about the total size of China's economic position in the world times increase (from seventh to sixth.) Comparison of National Bureau of Statistics officials stressed that complacent, industry has been underestimated.
do not know already, these scholars are not really predictable. In my mind, the publication of the article questioned the scholars underestimated China's service industry seems rare, but added that many of China service industry worried about slow masterpiece. recently (Dec. 13) Mr. Qian Yingyi was published in a forum on China's service industry may be underestimating the words, but on December 6 National Bureau of Statistics has released the first census Communiqué, and has reported several days after the Economic Census found three systems produced a serious leak the news,Discount UGG boots, I guess Mr. Qian possible to obtain this information. If Mr. Qian was still unaware of the situation on the census, that is quite an in the scholars feel the exact problem.
regardless of foresight or without thought of Ye Hao, Bureau of Statistics came out, researchers should be aware of the serious economic problem. Because 16.8% of GDP, the error is not decimal, the first change in the proportion of tertiary industry is not decimal, the tertiary industry 48.7% more than a small number of errors!
as the Bureau of Statistics said the increase the proportion of tertiary industry has brought a series of major changes in the relationship between the proportion of : contribution of final consumption to GDP ratio rose from 36.3% to 37.8%; fixed capital formation, the contribution rate of GDP decreased from 52.9% to 48.1%; the contribution of net exports to GDP ratio declined from 9.1% to 6.3%; fixed asset investment amount and the ratio of GDP declined from 51.5% to 44.1%; used to evaluate the indicators of liquidity ratio of M2 and the GDP dropped from 1.85 times to 1.58 times. method of accounting with the consumption expenditure rate, investment rate, fixed capital formation rate and a series of indicators will change accordingly.
In addition, the survey also brought some changes in macroeconomic indicators, such as: comprehensive energy consumption yuan GDP dropped from 1.58 tons of standard coal to 1.39 tons; electricity elasticity coefficient from 1.53 % to 1.44%; fiscal revenue in GDP, down from 19.3% to 16.5%; financial expenditure the proportion of GDP, from 20.8% to 17.8%.
ratio between the major changes and changes in macroeconomic indicators tell us: In fact, the national economic census shaken and even subvert the study on a number of important economic argument!
first of China's economic collapse. The main argument is the assertion that economic growth is false, the bubble caused by the statistical the illusion is based primarily on non-performing assets of the banking system a serious problem, accounting for the high proportion of GDP; China's rapid economic growth of over-reliance on government investment, more and more dependent on foreign capital.
followed by excessive dependence on foreign trade of China. It was by the ratio of GDP, foreign trade export volume of China's foreign trade dependence simple calculation has reached 70%, and excessive dependence on foreign trade that threaten economic sustainability, once the deteriorating trading environment, the overall economy will shrink.
third investment rate is too high, too low on the consumption rate. final consumption boosting the economy too. This is the stringent control of fixed asset investment theory.
fourth is the proportion of GDP, government debt is too high, too risky argument.
Fifth, China's third industry development is too slow, the proportion is too low, the operation of the economy with a weak pull-assertion.
, of course, there are some conclusions to obtain a more adequate support, such as our education expenditure-GDP ratio is even lower, R & D (R & D) costs account for the proportion of GDP is also lower, while the contribution of the private economy on a higher degree of employment. In addition, some scholars have pointed out that in the latest GDP data in services prices are growing faster than production class, inflation may be underestimated.
media remind the reader that changes in census data are not directly related with people's lives, just so that people understand more accurately the total economy only, this claim is correct. but there are two people should never underestimate the results of the census, one decision maker, and second, the researchers of China's economy.
concerned that macroeconomic policies will not and should result be adjusted to the census, people really do not know what Jinxi evening feeling. an important basis for policy development and a variety of important statistical data is the ratio between the data in such a major adjustment occurred as far as saying the policy should not be adjusted? the right choice I am afraid it is to re-examine a number of policies, including control of investment policy, or decision-making more scientific where to start? say the least, even if not to the adjustment direction, with technical adjustments do not need to do?
As for those scholars engaged in research of China's economy, whether previously had not felt the underestimation of the tertiary industry, see the National Bureau of Economic Census report, there is no reason significant omission, every day by the Bureau of Statistics data to infer the inference to the scholars, do not feel ridiculous study? Should not the new data to review their various arguments, arguments, conclusions?
comparing public opinion abroad re-examine the heated discussions of China's economy, I think, China's economic theorists seem too calm.