Summary of the international metal market week

 Summary
triggered China's copper imports rising demand-pull
Rusal said the next few weeks the UK ETF market
Citigroup is expected to be short-term copper prices will remain USD 10,000 per ton
hedge fund Red Kite said copper prices near record highs at unsustainable prices need to fall about 20%
Vale nickel output to reduce prices to boost popularity
Review
international metals markets this week, the overall operation remains strong, in addition to copper fall outside the most varieties have continued to rise, China's policy of tightening of liquidity relatively limited for the metals market and the dollar's continuing weakness in the support metal prices significantly. Copper rose to a record high on Monday after China's copper import data released unexpected jump, reinforcing the prospects for strong global demand, China may continue the reconstruction is expected to have pushed stocks higher. China's copper imports data suggest that, despite the recent policy tightening, has not affected China's economic growth, boost copper recorded about the largest one-day gain in two weeks.
preliminary data show that the Chinese Customs, in January unwrought copper and copper imports to 364,240 tons, representing an increase of 5.7% in December last year, an increase of 24.7% over the same period for last year's 9 the largest single month since March imports.
copper eased on Tuesday from a record high, marking the biggest one-day drop in three weeks, due to rising inflation in China to suppress the short-term needs than expected, and sparked fears that China will further tighten monetary policy. China's copper imports rose 5.7% the day after the announcement, people of China can maintain high economic growth of the questions resurfaced.
United States in 2011 for 500,000 tons of copper supply gap in 2012 has a smaller gap.
Copper fell for a second day on Wednesday, further away from record highs hit this week, because of rising inflation and economic growth prospects in emerging economies has begun to affect immune from concerns about the copper market.
copper futures fell to three-week low Thursday , due to technical selling and worries of inflation and copper prices near record highs in the suppressed demand, pressure on the market sentiment. But bargain-hunting buyers another admission, and low copper prices in the days near the copper reduction by London to help support decline, and the boost back up to the close of the New York copper futures rose flat plate.
fundamentals, the focus on hedge fund Red Kite Metals, said copper prices near record highs at unsustainable prices need to fall about 20% to attract the biggest buyers of China's large-scale return to the market.
copper futures ended higher on Friday, China raised the deposit reserve ratio not so bullish traders by surprise, they continue to hold long positions due to good demand is expected this year. China The People's Bank on Friday announced the date of raising the deposit from 24 financial institutions of RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points.
copper was suppressed by the message down, but losses were limited, but then the price rebounded to positive territory, as transactions concerned about the long-term supply and demand business.
widely expected the second half of 2010, almost uninterrupted rally will continue, as ore grades decline, a lack of new mines and the Chinese economy continues to grow.
Zinc was CMZN3 hit three-month high of 2,565 dollars per tonne, reported 2,553 closed up $ 39 dollars. Traders said some investors to sell the copper to buy zinc, zinc is the worst performance of 2010, the basic metals. the whole week continued to show strong run continued contraction of liquidity in the Chinese context, the metal market under certain pressure, but the overall run is still on the strong side.
preliminary review and assessment
point in the previous report on the author: increase in the channel in the current round, 12-month consolidation range is broken, the market is already running in the new trading range, the overall strength of the same. Lead prices interim head and shoulders bottom in the building which is still taking shape, the Chinese lead the news for the upcoming provide support for recovery in lead prices, short-term test the neckline has picked up momentum, the future, once break through the neckline bit, the market's trading range will move up sharply; strong tin price to maintain the recent trend to accelerate, the market leader in metal run; nickel prices continued to rise to maintain the operation of the channel, the short term will continue upward; In contrast, zinc becomes hobbled running, due to the huge inventory of zinc between supply and demand more relaxed, so passively following the market run more obvious, although the recent Shanghai zinc has gone up, but still limited range, the space has not been expanded. London recently adjusted some of its open space above the short term, above $ 2,540 will test the resistance, once overcome, then the upside will be promoted; Shanghai aluminum prices in London continue to run since last June, the slow rise from among the operational state of shock recovery, but the top is difficult to get a big expansion of space; external copper last year, although running increased since the passage in June of them, but its speed is much stronger than aluminum and zinc markets, Shanghai copper price shocks in the range of break in January, after which the new round of rising, fell back shortly after the shot up, but the overall strength of not change, the top tier will receive 77,390 yuan market test, a breakthrough in January in London since linked up quickly after the shock interval to test the highs drop slightly after the million mark, belonging to the scope of Withdrawing sure, investors will still to $ 9,790 as the basis to the top of the attack, $ 10,370 will be accepted first-line test the market. dollars over the shock consolidation; lead prices continue to build a relay in the form of head and shoulder at the end; nickel price continued to maintain gains; zinc $ 2,540 are among the major resistance testing. aluminum prices continued to rise in channel maintain them.
market focus this week, the Chinese government to slam the brakes

metals markets under pressure
ample global liquidity, including the current round of cast metal, including the bull market in commodities, it is difficult to avoid becoming the main market turmoil factor. As more and more stable global economic recovery, the original response to the global financial crisis and economic recession, the world's governments to show a high degree of consistency, have taken the way large-scale release of liquidity to stimulate the economy to avoid a serious economic recession. After two years in advance of the global economy still had a risk period, the recovery into a more stable state, but different because of the global division of labor, the process of economic recovery there is a clear differentiation, with China as the representative of emerging recovery in large-scale stimulation of relatively strong re-emergence of inflation risk, so the central bank into a large-scale operation to recover mobility. and developed countries, the United States as the representative of the pace of recovery appears to falter, and recovery, there are still such as the unemployment rate is too large, the real estate market is still sluggish and a series of problems, making the recovery process is fraught with uncertainty, so continue to firmly carry out its quantitative easing monetary policy. Meanwhile, the difference increased monetary system, and foreign exchange The gap is also significantly increased the market, making the global spread arbitrage and capital flows are still relatively reasonable and should be ongoing, so has the continuous influx of global liquidity in emerging market countries were natural in the sense, the formation of liquid input situation. In this context, ample global liquidity finishing a fundamental change in structure is difficult, and ample liquidity will be under the continuing bull market in commodities. But the central bank to raise interest rates and intensive policy has increased the price margin under pressure and short-term turmoil.
the Federal Reserve last week (Fed) meeting showed the Fed has maintained a cautious approach, coupled with the U.S. jobless claims data failed to extend good performance after a few weeks, the dollar early last week, a small index ascribed after the shock fall below the 78.00 mark and refresh session Feb. 9 low of 77.53 since the level of short-term dollar rally application has already been checked, is still weak. Meanwhile, the euro / dollar by the European Central Bank (ECB) official interest rates hearsay statements and boost the share debt, rose to 1.3700 level in intraday trading above the dollar under pressure again.
behavior of the central bank's policy tightening continued against commodity prices, the market turmoil .18 at once announced that raising the deposit reserve reserve ratio, the last announcement from the central bank to raise interest rates only 9 days apart, show that in the face of rising inflation and vigorous action taken continuously increased. The People's Bank of China announced the evening of 18 from February 24 onwards, to improve financial institutions, the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. This is the 8th since last year, raising the reserve ratio is the second time this year raised the reserve ratio, the deposit reserve rate to 19.5% rarely seen in history. central bank had already increased 7 times reserve ratio, raising interest rates three times, while the internal market and the liquidity of commercial banks has been greatly compressed, but in terms of liquidity and some new situations and new trends. various commercial bank lending has not been fundamentally curbed the impulse. in the central bank major efforts to use the case of the reserve ratio, 1 month, breaking trillion in new loans, to 1.04 trillion yuan. month, CPI rose 4.9%, inflation situation remains grim. At the same time, the recent monetary liquidity pressure not been tightened, to ensure funding requirements during the Spring Festival, the central bank for 14 consecutive weeks in the open market of up to 976 billion yuan of net invested capital. So after the Spring Festival a series of actions that action is already upgraded to tighten liquidity. to raise interest rates is to attract liquidity to commercial banks to raise deposit reserve ratio is the central bank pumped liquidity from commercial banks to freeze. execute 19.5% of the deposit reserve ratio, meaning that each absorbed 100 billion commercial bank deposits, have billion in capital, is the central bank to combat rising inflation. In this case, the commodity market is difficult to avoid the policy issued in the case of hit. At the same time, global capital flows continued to make the global liquidity is still ample pattern did not change, but global logistics base metal prices under pressure in the short term will also be picked up again after the possibility exists.

Sucden financial institutions point of view: the uncertainty of future direction of copper to the market tension and instability.
Southern Copper industry companies: As the demand and tight supply in China, the average price of copper this year expected to reach about $ 4 per pound. We believe that buyers will not stop investment in China. tight supply will also support copper, copper project due to a number of large have not yet put into production.
Standard Bank: Market jitters triggered another round of selling, the fund is under pressure, market focus is still copper, zinc followed. of zinc is still being well supported, especially compared to most recent being sell the copper. copper fluctuations may indicate that short-term interest shifted from copper zinc, the metal and the recent slight improvement in market sentiment.
comprehensive analysis of the chart list

the Chinese government to tighten monetary mechanism to open shows that the Government's determination of liquidity contraction, due to inflation in China is expected to continue to strengthen the Chinese government initiatives contraction of liquidity is more frequent in the near future. From the latest data show that in January the balance of narrow money (M1) increased by 13.6%, an increase of 7.6 percentage points lower from the previous month, while the balance of broad money (M2) increased by 17.2%, an increase is also reduced by 2.5 percent last month. This is since September 2009, M1 growth rate of M2 growth is lower than the first time speed, showing the flow of funds available in the market has slowed down significantly. the M1 growth rate to decline significantly, which has some of the Spring Festival of factors, there is a certain distortion of the data, but the overall growth rate of money supply, the trend is still down. but from The latest consumer price index (CPI), we see the contraction of the currency the central bank's move will slow down. China January CPI was only 4.9%, much lower than previous market expectations of 5.4%, CPI data is the central bank introduced The main measure of control policy basis for much less than the market expected the central bank once again shows that the pace of monetary tightening will slow, tight liquidity situation will be breathing, which provides for the metal market some support.
from the European market, the lingering debt crisis in Europe affects the hearts of the market. Recent major problems of the Portuguese national surge in bond yields, the market debt crisis of the European concern for Revival. On Thursday European time, Portugal 10-year German bond yields and bond yields over the same period the difference between the expansion of 32 basis points, Spain, Italy, Greece and Belgium bonds and German government bonds yield difference has also been expanded. the market focus appears to back the euro area peripheral countries, euro continued to decline while the dollar may be raised, while the dollar-denominated metals are also under pressure because of the dollar's rally.
In addition, the performance of U.S. economic data for the U.S. to bring some hope to stabilize the economy, also contributed to the short-term dollar rebound. U.S. Department of Commerce announced Wednesday the data showed U.S. housing starts rose 14.6% in January, turned into an annual rate of 596,000, higher than previous market expectations of 540,000. Housing starts rose in September 2010 the total number since the the highest level, reflecting the U.S. housing market signs of stabilization. U.S. economic data continued to rise as an opportunity for a rebound in the dollar, the U.S. unemployment rate is still too high to stabilize the real estate market will be further verified and serious imbalance in international payments, and many other factors exist, the dollar will not be long-term change in the pattern of weakness.
surrounding market and related species, the global stock markets are more healthy overall operation, indicating that the overall environment of the current metal market remains positive Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 Index is running since last June 5, the advancing waves of them, is still strong. The Frankfurt DAX index was running at the end of the first 5 waves of them since, to promote the structure and strength of the same. global the weakest are the recent breakthroughs in the Shanghai index to adjust channel, channel them into the rally, the demand for a short period of consolidation for the wave nature of the operation of the 4 adjustment upward if the market outlook, the current structure was established to promote, market outlook recovery level will be will be improved. Overall, global stock markets are more healthy, hard to put pressure on metal prices. The dollar and the euro overnight, but rebounded months, but generally low, indicating that the funds remain more relaxed, three-month yuan lending in the New Year continued to drop after, and that the central bank to recover mobility in the context of the overall liquidity remains abundant. This is our release from the U.S. CFTC commodity market positions can be concluded that the total U.S. commodity positions, whether or keep a record fund positions high, indicating that the steady flow of funds into the commodities market trend does not change, but also continue to support the price of a commodity. continued to drop in the Baltic shipping index has rebounded recently, in the spring switch to a good consumer cases, the level of activity also increased. As global clearing and payment systems remain weak U.S. dollar continues to run, after a rebound after two waves rising, the dollar's recent rebound in structural damage to come down again, the weak unchanged, with the metals market, negative correlation between the high metal prices make access to support. from the global commodity index point of view, the current round of rising channel remains intact, continuing trend. gold and silver have to adjust the end of the momentum picked up again, which is already entering a new rise in silver among the gold it is possible to adjust the nature of the end of 8 wave, about to start wave of increased market 9. New York crude oil despite the relative weakness in the near future, but the overall increase in channel which is still running.
metal market their own look, its operation last year after adjusting for the rise of new channels were not changed. Lead Price increases also running in the new channel which, while following the head and shoulder at the end of which the structure is still in the building which, once the afternoon break through the neckline, it increased level will be significantly enhanced. strong sustained recovery in tin prices, which run upward channel. nickel prices also rose runs on the new channel which, sustained structure. Shanghai zinc prices are running from the pick-up head and shoulders bottom right shoulder position, having a bit once the break through the neckline, it increased level will be raised. London also close to the head Shoulder neckline bit, be concerned about whether the breakthrough. aluminum prices continued to rise in the slow channel running them, investors will still continue. Shanghai copper prices under pressure this week, tightening of monetary policy is more in the price of copper on the performance of Obviously, the market still faces short-term policy impact. London the third Wednesday of the month after the conversion option associated with the delivery bottlenecks come to an end, copper prices took the opportunity to come down in the short term the market may still be repeated shocks. Market for January 25 breakthrough since the market's adjustment in the uplink, the structure, are non-conventional platform consolidation (engulfing), $ 9,720 is more important to the availability of support, while, once the market re-boarded the million mark, the The new prices are still available on the target unchanged.
Jingchuang
mobile computer teacher to force delivery of the Nuggets joined the 888 Club, the international metal market investment and financial management review the week Review of the international metal market week (2011.2.6 ~ 2.11)